Monday, February 4, 2013
What's in Store for India?!
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Booming in Tough Times
On a lighter note...
Friday, March 23, 2012
Trouble in Paradise: India Inc.
I have been worrying lately about the state of the Indian economy and couldn't resist my urge to add my bit to the ongoing debate. With inflation adjusted GDP growth rate as high as 10.4% in 2010, suddenly the brakes seem to be jammed on the country’s growth. Let me try to deconstruct this situation.
First off: Some fundamentals
It is a well established fact that macro-economic phenomena like GDP growth and inflation go hand in hand. For a high growth economy like India with growth projections pegged in the 8-10% range, inflation levels of up to 10% are considered normal. In a typical fast growing economy, growth in industrial output drives GDP growth i.e. more income for the nation (and more money in the hands of its people). This should trigger a growth in domestic spending due to greater liquidity, which means more money chasing fewer commodities thus driving prices up. Governments and central banks typically reign in the inflation through Monetary and Fiscal policies. The central banks, which sets the benchmark interest rate i.e. The rate at which it lends to other banks in the country plays a significant role in regulating the economy through monetary policies. When in expansionary mode, it simply prints more money, lowers the benchmark interest rates thus lowering borrowing cost for banks and in-turn for the consumers. This typically leads to more money available for consumption thus causing inflation. On the other hand, when in contractionary mode, it rises interest rates thus making borrowing dearer for banks and in-turn the consumers. This has a decelerating effect on the economy and in-turn curbs inflation.
The fiscal policy on the other hand is a potent tool in the hands of the government, which determines how it will allocate funds for its annual spend. The source of income for the government is largely tax revenue and sovereign debt. When in expansionary mode, the government raises more money through higher taxation and borrowing. This typically drives interest rates up thus, grows GDP primarily due to increased government spending on subsidies and infrastructure projects among other things and impedes inflation due to rising interest rates. When in contractionary mode, government liberalizes (i.e. lowers) tax rates and borrowing thus bringing down interest rates but slows down GDP due to reduced public spending. Both Monetary and Fiscal policies need to have a balance effect in order for the economy to be in steady state and grow. If one of them goes off the rail it will threaten the equilibrium and sustainable growth of the economy.
Let is now examine some factors that are ailing the Indian Economy:
Political Stymieing: The gerontocratic political class running the county is going through its worst period of impasse with every proposed reform blocked by short-sighted vote-bank politics. Our pseudo egalitarian, left of center politicians seem to be unhappy with every possible reform proposed by the government. We have seen several promising bills such as liberalizing FDI in retail to the recently proposed railway fare hike being shelved due to their apparent threat to the ‘Aam Aadmi’. The ruling congress partly seems to be hapless and at the mercy of its coalition partners and simply rubber stamping their demands. All of these developments have significantly dampened investors spirits and have threatened to take India off the ‘high-growth’ map.
Budget Deficit: The government is unable to reign in growing budget deficit due to wasteful and costly public spending. Some examples being soaring subsidies for fuel and fertilizers. India’s fiscal deficit stands at 5.9% of GDP fueled primarily by subsidies (2.4% of GDP). One of the glaring issues is diesel subsidy; it is not uncommon for industrial users of furnace oil (an unsubsidized commodity) to buy diesel instead of FO due to its lower price. Too, diesel cars are selling in disproportionately larger volumes that petrol cars due to lower diesel prices. This are glaring example of subsidies not reaching the intended beneficiary. Government is unable to take a unified stand on this issue of rationalizing wasteful subsidies.
Faulty Monetary Policies: The RBI became notorious for repeated interest rate hikes. Since March of 2010, RBI hiked its benchmark interest rates 13 times. Each time with the hope of reigning in inflation but with limited success. It is now widely accepted that RBI’s stand on inflation was flawed. The primary driver of inflation being food prices, which were caused by supply side constraints and nothing to do with money circulation. Hiking interest rates with the hope of restricting money supply and in-turn curbing inflation was to no avail. Inflation remains stubbornly high at 8.8% as of Feb 2012. While unable to impact inflation, the interest hikes have succeeded in stalling economic progress. At 6.9% growth for Q3 2011, India registered its slowest GDP growth in years thus ringing the alarm bells for policymakers.
Global Sentiments: Global investor sentiments have sagged due to politico-economic crises in Europe. Global demands have sagged, badly impacting trade and more importantly investor sentiments. A relatively small economy like Greece (and now Portugal) threatened to bring down the EU and questioned the very existence of a single currency Eurozone. While Europe by itself may not be India’s largest trade partner, the crises impacted our economy at more than one level. For one, India payed the price for being a high growth economy. A high growth economy attracts hot-cash (short & mid term portfolio investment), lured by prospect of superior returns. When global economic outlooks sag, the tell tale sign is capital flight from high-growth economies, and India was no exception. Capital flight threatened the Rupee and made it the worst performing currency in Asia in 2011. It fell by more than 17% against the dollar, reaching an all time low of Rs. 54.20 to the US$ on 15th December 2011. India relies on capital inflows to fund its current account deficit, but self inflicted wounds and investors’ worries about troubles elsewhere have been driving capital away and New Delhi, already in turmoil, is running out of firepower to deal with the impact.
So this brings us to the obvious question: will India Inc resurrect? A well diversified, highly industrialized nation with strong domestic consumption fueling growth, Indian can in no way be written off. At one point 8-9% GDP growth was considered entitlement and nobody considered the possibility of a slow down. I still believe that impressive growth figures are achievable at least over the next decade, fueled both by both domestic consumption and global demand. A strong feature of Indian economy is the fact that it is one of the most well diversified economies in the world. Sectors ranging from mining to telecom are registering strong YoY growth; Too, primary, secondary and tertiary sectors are all contributing to the growth of the economy (though lately the tertiary AKA service industry is taking the lead). The country is also benefiting from a largely young population. A UN report claims that between 2010 and 2030, India is likely to add 241 million people in the working age population as compared to 10 million for China and 18 million for Brazil! All these facts lead us to only one obvious question: Will better policymaking at the center resurrect India's growth....OR can India grow despite the policymakers at the center?!
Monday, November 28, 2011
10 Reasons Why ‘Silver Bullet’ Strategies Fail
“Good business leaders create a vision, articulate the vision, passionately own the vision, and relentlessly drive it to completion.”
- Jack Welch
- 1) Not Aligned With Business Imperatives: Eli Goldratt in his book ‘Goal’ argues that in order to build competitiveness, a firm must focus on three things: Throughput, Inventory, and Operational Expenses; in short, a strategic intervention must answer how it will enhance the financial competitiveness of the firm and create long-lasting stakeholder value. One of the reasons why change initiatives fails is because they are not clearly aligned with such business imperatives. The business results expected are either not clearly defined or communicated thus leading to confusion and chaos. A successful change initiative is one which has clearly defined goals and linkages with business imperatives.
2) Not Creating a Powerful Enough Guiding Coalition: The Success of any change initiative hinges on the creation of a critical mass of change agents that truly believe in it and are willing to pull out all stops to ensure success. There will also be detractors and naysayers who will not only denounce the effort but also try to cause it to fail. Thus the success depends on how rapidly the leadership can create a critical mass of people who become the guiding coalition of change and nurture it till it becomes sustainable. This could very well prove to be the tipping point of success for the change initiative.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
RIP, My Idol

The world has lost a super hero today. Steve Jobs has captured the imagination of millions world wide and in the process created the most loved global brand. Apple holds the distinction of not only being the most valued tech company in the world today but also the only company in the world to have trumped an Oil & Gas major (Exxon Mobil) in terms of market cap at a time when global oil prices are at their peak!
Steve’s visionary leadership will be sorely missed at Apple for years to come. He never allowed to be typecast and kept Apple at the cutting edge of innovation. He pushed his team to dump the tried and tested and create products that were truly revolutionary. As a CEO, Steve inspired millions all over the world. Although I agree that he was not a level - 5 leader who could develop future leaders under his wing to carry his legacy forward (no offense to Tim Cook but I a seriously doubt his ability to fill Steve’s shoes), he was a leader next to none.
Ever since he came back to Apple in 2000, he has led the company from one miracle to another. Starting from the launch of iPod in 2001, which completely transformed the way the world listened to music to the iPhone (2007) and iPad (2010). His style has always been that of a daring and pathbreaking leader. With the launch of iTunes, he singlehandedly brought the biggest names in the music industry, who refused to believe there was a better way to distributing music, to their knees; and in the process transformed the way the world accessed music.
As a budding entrepreneur, I have always tried to emulate Steve. His ability to simplify complexity, his oratory skills, his infectious passion, and his pride for his baby (Apple) have all deeply resonated with me. His keynote speeches at product launch events have always been a treat to watch; I have not seen another leader that is so passionate about his creation as Steve. Although he never bragged about it, Apple, under his leadership has been a pioneer of Lean Product Design. Apple was the first company to shun excessive bells and whistles in its products (Macs to iPads) and instead focused on value as perceived by customer, both in engineering and software design. While delivering superior value and reliability, their products are insanely simple in design and in use. Their OS and Software are next to none; they have just the right amount of features that delight the user while being incredibly simple to learn and use. It always amazes me that Macs (OS X user base) have only 15% penetration even in North America, when it is obvious that they are at least 100 years ahead of the competition in features and design.
I was hoping for Steve to come out strong and win his battle against pancreatic cancer, so it comes as a deep shock to me to learn of his untimely death. Steve has left an indelible mark on the world and his position at Apple is irreplaceable. To my mind, he is the greatest entrepreneur of the century and the world will dearly miss him!
RIP my idol.
"I want to put a ding in the universe."
- Steve Jobs
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Empowerment!
I have been going through a harrowing experience with an airline recently. I am a gold member in their loyalty program and have been religiously earning all my miles with them. Having accumulating enough miles to redeem a round trip, I called them to get my award tickets for a trip I plan to make next month. My sage of disappointment began right away.
I realized that they do not have a dedicated call center for the low-volume high value customers like me, who I presume will not exceed a few 100o in number. Thus each time I called, I was put on an average 30 minute hold before my call was answer. Also to my utter disbelief, I was told that the category of seats for award tickets were sold out, and we’re talking 2 months in advance here! I was not convinced and chose to lodge a complain through their website. I received a call the very next day from a “Guest Commitment Executive”. For some reason, she seemed to be in a real hurry to wind up the call, all that she said was that my complain had been resolved and that I was going to receive a call shortly from the loyalty program desk. In her parlance, a commitment for call back was in itself the resolution of complain. This time I flew off the handle, I put my utter disappointment on record. She had no choice but to promise that my complain will be taken up on high priority and that someone will call me at the soonest to resolve it. To this date the problem has not been resolved. My biggest grip is the fact that I didn’t see any trace of effort on the part of the airline to go the extra mile to retain the loyalty of one of their most premium customers.
When I was in the US, I have faced many service failures. But each time something went wrong, the company went all the way to retain my loyalty. There was this incident when I accidentally made an international call without using my calling card which ended up costing over $200. I hesitantly called AT&T to implore them if they would consider waiving off the fee. Without a moment’s hesitation, the call center executive waived the entire amount. I was shocked in disbelief by her heroic act of customer focus. I became a loyal advocate of AT&T for life despite being painfully aware of their lousy network because I know for sure that they will more than make up for it by their superior customer service.
Amazon is another brand that I passionately advocate. Once a hard drive I’d ordered online crashed suddenly leaving me in the lurch. I was in the middle of my MBA semester and couldn't afford even a few hours downtime. Without missing a beat, they shipped me the replacement drive the very next morning. They didn’t bother to even probe if my request was genuine. This made me an Amazon loyalist for life.
The common element in both these experiences was EMPOWERMENT. An employee at the lowest rung of the ladder was empowered to take such a bold decision on behalf of the organization. She didn’t have to waste time being caught up in the administrative quagmire in order to resolve my problem. These organizations didn’t become proactive by accident. They have taken the pains to systematically create the right climate and procedural framework to bolster such bold decision making. They have also instilled the value of customer service in each and every employee thus making them just as passionate about it as the CEO would be. So to summarize, the only way to attain and retain customer loyalty is by having a long term vision to engender a strong culture of service. Only then will companies be able to differentiate themselves and earn the love and loyalty of their customers for life.
"A customer is the most important visitor on our premises. he is not dependent on us. We are dependent on him. He is not an interruption in our work. He is the purpose of it. He is not an outsider in our business. He is part of it. We are not doing him a favor by serving him. He is doing us a favor by giving us an opportunity to do so"
-Mahatma Gandhi
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
I'm Back!
It has been over a year since I last blogged. Looks like writers block indeed isn't a myth. It took a great deal of caffeine, and determination to shrug off the inertia and get myself to blog again, and what better topic could I write about than my fresh-from-the-oven MBA experience.
My MBA journey has been a roller coaster ride, in fact it went by so quickly that, up until now, I never really had the chance to reflect. And how has the experience been? To put it succinctly, it was life-changing. So what really is a Global MBA? Is it just a marketing gimmick or does it really stand for something unique? Why should I go to Thunderbird and not to one of the top b-schools in India? These were some of the thoughts that hounded my mind while evaluating Thunderbird among other schools. Looking back now it seems like an obvious choice, but most certainly not back then.
Thunderbird has given me such a global vision that cannot come from even some of the best designed courses in the country simply because they would just lack the global relevance and global context that courses at Thunderbird so naturally resonante with. The cultural tension of working with diverse multi-cultural teams was as much a part of my development as the lectures and case discussions in class. I learned the importance of looking at things from another person’s point of view and respecting their opinion as much as I’d want them to respect mine. I learned the nuances of dealing with diverse cultures and the power of context in every communication. Given my global aspirations for SSA, I don't think I would have had a better avenue to enhance my cultural intelligence.
So in summary, the past several months in the US, and especially at Thunderbird have been some of the most challenging as well as most rewarding months of my life. I am amazed at how much I have learned and grown both in knowledge and stature within such a short span of time. For once I don’t feel like I’m too small to fill my father’s shoes someday, but then I am reminded...there are promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep!


